www.fanklub123.fora.pl

nakis5k6jtan

Read on
Bob Brinker Update for July 2006
Bob Brinker Update 2006 0604
Bob Brinker Update 0402
.Tight Money: He said the Fed was reducing M2 to slow growth - BEARISHRising Rates:He was foreseeing higher long and short term rates apt persist. This did no happen merely it was - BEARISH for his model.. High Inflation: He said the CPI was approaching 3% and import amounts were up 5% which would further impact inflation. We didn't get high inflation [link widoczny dla zalogowanych], but this was BEARISH for his model none the less. Rapid Growth: Real GDP growth was approaching 5%. Bob felt the FED would use rates to attempt and slow this. This was was BEARISH and correct. Over Valuation: "We believe valuation levels in the U.S. market are stretched to the limit." BEARISH
The 5 root causes of a bear market are
. Tight Money: Rising Rates: High Inflation: Rapid Growth: Over Valuation:
Then in October 2000 Brinker recommended putting 20 to 50% of cash keeps back into the market through the NASDAQ100 (QQQQ Bulletin for a counter trend rally despite mentioning his model had not given a buy signal. The QQQQ commerce was a calamity, but his long term model was correct to predict further weakness for 2001 and 2002 were both down annuals for the markets.
All 5 of his basis occasions were BEARISH in January 2000. On the radio agenda by the period, he said he was not bearish, but the odds preferred a ebb over the market working up more than 5%. As such, he recommended reducing the equity delivery from 100% to 40% in his prototype portfolio mathematics one and 2. He too lowered his Model Portfolio III (which namely a balanced portfolio) equity allocation from 50% to 20%. In August of 2000, while the market was a morsel higher, he suggested taking another 5% out of equities as a 65:35 Equities-to-Cash asset allocation.
[Note: Discuss Bob Brinker and his timing model in our Bob Brinker FREE Forum.]
.Tight Money. Economagic.com shows the growth of M2 Money Supply is still assured at 4.03%, slightly on the 3.40% annualized inflation rate for the same phase. Bob is cheerful by the time M2 is growing faster than inflation. I rate this as BULLISH. Rising Rates: After the Fed raised rates to 5.25%, Bob said ashore the radio Saturday 06/03/06 that he thought the Fed had gone also distant and will have to lower rates. The Federal Reserve has raised short-term Interest rates from a low of 1.0% aboard June19 [link widoczny dla zalogowanych], 2004 to their present 5.25%. After an historic 17 straight rate increases, the Fed did not heave rates at the final meetin
Now, let's look at the 5 Root Causes of a Bear Market and look where they stand today as of September 3, 2006:
The markets bottomed in October 2002 and his model correctly gave him a bullish buy signal within 5% of the S&P500 bottom in early 2003. Since returning to 100% provided in March 2003 [link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Bob Brinker has correctly remained entirely provided with no QQQQ-like side trips to hurt his rendition.
September 3, 2006: In Bob Brinker's January 2000 Marketimer he published his "Five Root Causes for a Bear Market"
In January 2000, Bob Brinker informed catching 60% out of the mart because:
I trust none of Bob Brinker's "5 Root Causes of a bear market" are present today so Brinker will remain bullish. Before I examine the causes in elaborate, lets look at them in one historical perspective.